The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Heading

 

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There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what the experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.

Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest. Here’s why.

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below):

And if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here’s what the breakdown shows:

• The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year, through 2029.
• The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.
• The pessimists still forecast about 1.3% growth per year.

Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.

That’s much healthier for the market – and for you. Yes, some areas may see prices hold relatively flat or dip a bit in the short term, especially where inventory is on the rise. Others may appreciate faster than the national average because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers trying to purchase them. But overall, more moderate price growth is cooling the rapid spikes we saw during the frenzy of the past few years.

And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the fence about your plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The market isn’t heading for a crash. It’s on track for steady, slow, long-term growth overall, with some regional ups and downs along the way.

Want to know what that means for our neighborhood? Because national trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code. Let’s have a quick conversation so you can see exactly what our local data means for you.

Think No One’s Buying Homes Right Now? Think Again.

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If you’ve seen headlines saying home sales are down compared to last year, you might be thinking – is it even a good time to sell? 

Here’s the thing. Sure, the pace of the market has cooled compared to the frenzy we saw just a few years ago, but that’s not a red flag. It’s a return to normal. And normal doesn’t mean nothing’s happening. Buyers are still out there – and homes are still selling.

Why? Because real life doesn’t pause for perfect conditions. There are always people who need to buy – and this year is no exception. Buyers who are in the middle of a big change in their lives, a new marriage, a growing family, or a new job still need to move, no matter where mortgage rates are. And they may be looking for a home just like yours.

Every Minute 8 Homes Sell

Let’s break it down using the latest sales data from the National Association of Realtors(NAR). Based on the current pace, we’re on track to sell 4.03 million homes this year (not including new construction).

• 4.03 million homes ÷ 365 days = 11,041 homes sell per day
• 11,041 homes ÷ 24 hours = 460 homes sell per hour
• 460 homes ÷ 60 minutes = roughly 8 homes sell every minute

That means in the time it takes to read this, another 8 homes will sell. Let that sink in. Every minute, buyers are making moves – and sellers are closing deals.

The Right Agent Makes All the Difference

If you’ve been holding off on selling your house because you think buyers aren’t out there, let this reassure you – there are still buyers looking to buy.

But since the market is balancing out, selling today takes more than just putting up a sign in the yard. You’ve got to price your house right, market it well, and know how to reach the buyers who are ready to act. That’s where a trusted local agent comes in.

They’ll help you navigate this market, position your home to stand out, and guide you through every step.

Bottom Line

The market hasn’t stopped. Buyers are still buying. Life is still happening. And if selling your home is part of your next chapter, let’s make it happen.

Roughly 11,000 homes are selling every day – and yours could be next. When you’re ready to take the next step, let’s connect.

Think It’s Better To Wait for a Recession Before You Move? Think Again.

 

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Fear of a recession is back in the headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, that may leave you wondering if you should reconsider the timing of your move.

A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) shows 68% of people are delaying plans to buy or sell due to economic uncertainty.

But it may not be for the reason you think. Not everyone is holding off because they’re worried. Some buyers are waiting because they’re hopeful. According to Realtor.com:

“In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8% of) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”

And there’s some truth to the idea that a recession could bring about lower mortgage rates. History shows mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. That’s not guaranteed – but it is a common pattern. Looking at data from the last six recessions, you can see mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below): 

But here’s what those buyers may not be considering. Many of those hopeful buyers are assuming something else will happen too – that home prices will drop. And that’s where history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices went up in four of the last six recessions (see graph below)

So, while many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008, that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because there’s still a long-standing inventory deficit, even as the number of homes on the market is rising.

Since prices tend to stay on whatever path they’re already on, know this: prices are still holding steady or rising in most metros, although at a much slower pace. So, a big drop isn’t likely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

"Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . ."

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for a recession to make your move, it’s important to understand what really happens during one – and what likely won’t. Lower mortgage rates could be on the table. But lower home prices? That’s far less likely.

Don’t wait for a market that may never come. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, let’s connect to talk through what today’s economy really means for you – and make a smart plan that works in your favor, regardless of what the headlines say.