What a Government Shutdown Really Means for the Housing Market

 

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There’s been a lot of talk lately about how a government shutdown impacts the housing market. You might be wondering: Is it causing everything to grind to a halt?

The short answer? No.

The housing market doesn’t stop. It keeps moving. Homes are still being bought and sold, contracts are still being signed, and closings are still happening. The difference is that a few parts of the process may slow down a little, but overall, the market continues to function.

Here’s What Typically Happens 

Whenever the government shuts down, some federal agencies temporarily close or scale back their operations. That can cause a few hiccups in real estate, especially when it comes to processing certain types of government loans and insurance requirements:

• “Applicants for FHA, VA, or USDA loans—which account for about one-quarter of all mortgage applications—may encounter significant processing delays due to agency furloughs.” - Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality
• “By recent estimates, more than 2,500 mortgage originations per working day are at risk of delays during a shutdown . . .”  - Zillow
• Flood insurance approvals may also be paused. The National Flood Insurance Program can be temporarily affected, which delays closings in flood zones.

Even with those challenges and delays, most transactions still go through. Buyers keep buying, sellers keep selling, and agents keep helping people move forward.

The Housing Market Usually Bounces Back Fast

And you can see that play out in this data. If you look back at the most recent government shutdown that began at the end of 2018 and lasted for 35 days, sales activity dipped very slightly during the closure but picked right back up once the government reopened.

Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows existing home sales slowed for about two months, and then rebounded quickly as delayed closings worked their way through the system when the government reopened (see graph below):

What’s important to note is that the slowdown you see in the orange bars on this graph wasn’t simply due to seasonality in a typical housing market cycle. The sharper, shorter drop in this case lines up exactly with the 35-day government shutdown, and then sales bounced back as soon as it ended.

What This Means for You

If you’re in the middle of buying or selling a home, don’t panic. Most deals will still move forward, even if it takes a few extra days. Jeff Ostrowski, Housing Market Analyst at Bankrate, explains:

“If you’re expecting to close in a week or a month, there could be some slight delay, but I think for most people, it’s probably going to be a blip more than a real deal killer.”

And if you’re just starting to think about buying or selling, this could actually work in your favor. Some buyers and sellers may become cautious and pause their plans during times of uncertainty, like this, and that can open a short window of opportunity.

When fewer people are active in the market, well-prepared buyers may find less competition for homes, and motivated sellers may be more willing to negotiate. These brief slowdowns often create a moment where you can make a move that would be harder once activity ramps back up.

Bottom Line

A government shutdown can cause short-term delays for some buyers, but it doesn’t derail the housing market. The last time this happened, sales picked back up as soon as the government re-opened.

If you’re unsure how this might affect your plans, or just want to make sense of what’s happening, let’s connect.

Thought the Market Passed You By? Think Again.

 

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If you stepped back from your home search over the past few years, you’re not alone – and you’re definitely not out of options. In fact, now might be the ideal time to take another look. With more homes to choose from, prices leveling off in many areas, and mortgage rates easing, today’s market is offering something you haven’t had in a while: options.

Experts agree, buyers are in a better spot right now than they’ve been in quite a long time. Here’s what they have to say.

Affordability Is Finally Improving 

Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says affordability is finally starting to turn the corner:

“Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.” 

Mortgage rates have eased from their recent highs, price growth has slowed, and that one-two combo is making homes more affordable than they’ve been in months.

There Are More Homes on The Market

And a big reason prices are easing is because there are more homes on the market. According to the latest from Realtor.com, there are 17% more homes for sale today than there were at this time last year. That means more options, less competition with other buyers, and a chance to find the space that actually works for you.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shares:

“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.” 

Take a look at the numbers.

As Yun notes, inventory is up everywhere. Compared to this time last year, every region of the country has more homes on the market than at this time last year (see graph below):

That translates to more homes to choose from, whether you’re looking for a bigger backyard, a shorter commute, or finally ditching your rental.

But not all markets are the same…

When you compare current inventory growth to pre-pandemic norms (2017–2019), the picture changes a bit, depending on where you are (see graph below):

The green bars show where inventory has fully recovered (and even grown above pre-pandemic levels) in the South and the West. Supply, however, is still tighter in the Northeast and Midwest, as shown in the red bars, where inventory is still below normal.

And here’s why that’s still a win everywhere. 

When you step back and look at the bigger picture, with inventory up in every region, that means more choices everywhere, even if some areas have more homes for sale than others.

And with fewer buyers in the market and more homes for sale, sellers are willing to negotiate to get a deal done.

All of that adds up to a win for today’s buyers.

And it’s also why working with a local expert really makes a difference. What’s happening in your zip code or neighborhood might look different than the national or regional trend. But the overall takeaway is clear: with more homes on the market, buyers have more leverage than they did a year or more ago.

So, if you stepped away from your search because things felt too competitive, too pricey, you were worried about finding a home, or it was all just too much to process, this could be your moment to take another look.

And if you’re not quite ready to go all in, that’s okay too. You can start by planning ahead. That means working with a trusted agent who can help you break down your budget, narrow your search, and make sure you're prepped and ready when the right home hits the market.

Bottom Line

Want to know what’s happening in our area? Let’s have a conversation so you can get a custom overview of what’s available right now and learn how to be ready when the timing is right for you.

Because this isn’t 2021.

This isn’t even 2023 or 2024.

This is a new market – and you might be surprised by what you find.