Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed?

The interest rate you pay on your home mortgage has a direct impact on your monthly payment. The higher the rate the greater the payment will be. That is why it is important to look at where rates are headed when deciding to buy now or wait until next year.

According to a recent article in Kiplinger, 30 year mortgage rates are about to increase:

 “Now around 4.1%, rates will edge slowly toward 4.4% by the end of this year. Then they’ll follow the Treasury bond rate’s upward move in early 2015. Thirty-year home loans should end 2015 at around 5.1%, still low by historical standards.”

Here is a graph created by using interest rate projections in Freddie Mac’s August 2014 U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook:

How will this impact a mortgage payment?

Research released this month by Zillow reveals:

“We examined how a 1 percentage point rise in mortgage rates would impact monthly payments for the typical home in 35 metro areas, and found that the difference this year versus next year varies dramatically from market to market. In the San Jose/Silicon Valley area, for example, potential buyers should expect to see a monthly payment increase of more than $700 if they waited a year to buy the same home they were considering today. By contrast, in St. Louis, the difference is only $65 per month.” (emphasis added)

Bottom Line

Again, we turn to the Zillow research:

“As rates rise, new home buyers will confront higher financing costs and monthly mortgage payments. For many, this will mean tightening their budgets and sacrificing some luxuries they may take for granted today.”

A ‘Soft’ Housing Market? We Beg to Differ!

There are some pundits lamenting the softness of the 2014 housing market. We can’t understand why. Though it is true that the early part of the year disappointed because of a myriad of reasons (ex. weather, lack of inventory, less distressed sales), the recent housing news is extremely encouraging. Let’s give some examples:

Spring Home Buying Season is Healthiest in 3 Years

Move, Inc. just last week revealed that this spring’s housing market finished stronger than any time in the last three years. In the report, Jonathan Smoke, chief economist forrealtor.com explained:

"This is the first time, since the beginning of the recovery that we expect to see positive momentum throughout the second half of the year. While seasonal patterns are emerging in July month-to-month comparisons, all other metrics point to fundamental market health and a build-up of momentum."

Existing Home Sales are Up

In their latest Existing Home Sales Report, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced existing-home sales increased in July to their highest annual pace of the year. That is even though distressed property sales fell to 9%, the first time they were in the single-digits since NAR started tracking the category in October 2008. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR explained:

“The number of houses for sale is higher than a year ago and tamer price increases are giving prospective buyers less hesitation about entering the market. More people are buying homes compared to earlier in the year and this trend should continue.”

New Construction Surging

According to an article on Market Watch, new constructing is surging:

“Construction on new U.S. homes jumped 15.7% in July to the highest level in eight months and starts were revised up sharply for June, indicating a pickup in home building after an early-year lull. Housing starts climbed to an annual rate of 1.09 million last month…Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected starts to climb to a seasonally adjusted 975,000 in July.”

Foot Traffic at Year High Numbers

Foot traffic (the number of people out actually physically looking at homes) has a strong correlation with future contracts and home sales, so it can be viewed as a peek ahead at sales trends two to three months into the future.

The latest foot traffic numbers show that there are more prospective purchasers currently looking at homes than at any other time in the last twelve months which includes the latest spring buyers’ market.

Bottom Line

The spring market finished stronger than any time in the last three years. Home sales are at year long highs. New construction is beating estimates. There are more buyers out than at any time in the last twelve months.

We think the housing market is doing just fine.

Harvard’s 5 Financial Reasons to Buy a Home

Eric Belsky is Managing Director of the Joint Center of Housing Studies at Harvard University. He also currently serves on the editorial board of the Journal of Housing Research and Housing Policy Debate. Last year, he released a paper on homeownership - The Dream Lives On: the Future of Homeownership in America. In his paper, Belsky reveals five financial reasons people should consider buying a home.

Here are the five reasons, each followed by an excerpt from the study:

1.) Housing is typically the one leveraged investment available.

“Few households are interested in borrowing money to buy stocks and bonds and few lenders are willing to lend them the money. As a result, homeownership allows households to amplify any appreciation on the value of their homes by a leverage factor. Even a hefty 20 percent down payment results in a leverage factor of five so that every percentage point rise in the value of the home is a 5 percent return on their equity. With many buyers putting 10 percent or less down, their leverage factor is 10 or more.”

2.) You're paying for housing whether you own or rent. 

“Homeowners pay debt service to pay down their own principal while households that rent pay down the principal of a landlord.”

3.) Owning is usually a form of “forced savings”.

“Since many people have trouble saving and have to make a housing payment one way or the other, owning a home can overcome people’s tendency to defer savings to another day.”

4.) There are substantial tax benefits to owning.

“Homeowners are able to deduct mortgage interest and property taxes from income...On top of all this, capital gains up to $250,000 are excluded from income for single filers and up to $500,000 for married couples if they sell their homes for a gain.”

5.) Owning is a hedge against inflation.

“Housing costs and rents have tended over most time periods to go up at or higher than the rate of inflation, making owning an attractive proposition.”

Bottom Line

We realize that homeownership makes sense for many Americans for an assortment of social and family reasons. It also makes sense financially. 

5 Reasons You Shouldn’t For Sale by Owner

Some homeowners consider trying to sell their home on their own, known in the industry as a For Sale by Owner (FSBO). We think there are several reasons this might not be a good idea for the vast majority of sellers.

Here are five of our reasons:

1. There Are Too Many People to Negotiate With

Here is a list of some of the people with whom you must be prepared to negotiate if you decide to FSBO.

• The buyer who wants the best deal possible
• The buyer’s agent who solely represents the best interest of the buyer
• The buyer’s attorney (in some parts of the country)
• The home inspection companies which work for the buyer and will almost always find some problems with the house
• The appraiser if there is a question of value
• Your bank in the case of a short sale

2. Exposure to Prospective Purchasers

Recent studies have shown that 92% of buyers search online for a home. That is in comparison to only 28% looking at print newspaper ads. Most real estate agents have an extensive internet strategy to promote the sale of your home. Do you?

3.  Actual Results also come from the Internet

Where do buyers find the home they actually purchased?

• 43% on the internet
• 9% from a yard sign
• 1% from newspapers

The days of selling your house by just putting up a sign and putting it in the paper are long gone. Having a strong internet strategy is crucial.

4. FSBOing has Become More and More Difficult

The paperwork involved in selling and buying a home has increased dramatically as industry disclosures and regulations have become mandatory. This is one of the reasons that the percentage of people FSBOing has dropped from 19% to 9% over the last 20+ years.

5. You Net More Money when Using an Agent

Many homeowners believe that they will save the real estate commission by selling on their own. Realize that the main reason buyers look at FSBOs is because they also believe they can save the real commission. The seller and buyer can’t both save the same commission.

Studies have shown that the typical house sold by the homeowner sells for $184,000 while the typical house sold by an agent sells for $230,000.   This doesn’t mean that an agent can get $46,000 more for your home as studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points. However, it does show that selling on your own might not make sense.

Bottom Line

Before you decide to take on the challenges of selling your house on your own, sit with a real estate professional in your marketplace and see what they have to offer. Call Tony Elias today at 619.449.1919 for a FREE no obligation consultation.

HOME APPRECIATION SLOWS

County median price rises to $445,000 as increases return to regular levels even amid tight inventory
Annual home price appreciation in San Diego County is nearly back to a normal pace, continuing its descent from last year’s gains of more than 20 percent.

Last month, the median price for a home sold in San Diego County was $445,000, which is 6.6 percent higher than the median price in July 2013, real-estate tracker CoreLogic DataQuick reported Wednesday.

By comparison, home prices in July 2013 were up 22.1 percent from the previous year, an increase driven largely by investors who fixed up and resold distressed properties, or rented them out and therefore constrained supply.

“When we were seeing 22 percent price appreciation, I would argue it wasn’t the case that the same exact house was selling for 22 percent more,” said Jordan Levine, director of economic research at Beacon Economics. “It was that the mix of houses were skewing toward less distressed, which pumped up those overall medians.”

Levine said he sees annual appreciation returning to about 4 to 5 percent, which is in line historically with incomes and inflation. In the housing bubble that led to the Great Recession, eased lending standards allowed home prices to grow beyond what incomes could support, Levine said.

From June to July, the median home price in the county declined by $5,000. At the same time, activity in the county’s real-estate market declined both over the month and annually. In July, there were 3,474 transactions closing in San Diego County, down from 3,736 in June, and an 18.5 percent drop from the 4,260 transactions in July 2013.

Gary Kent, a La Jolla-based agent with Keller-Williams, said he considers the current housing market to be the first balanced market since 2000, meaning it’s not a strong buyer’s or seller’s market.

“I think that’s partly because prices have reached the point that we have some people selling because they like the price they can get for the house,” he said. “The flip side is that buyers aren’t seeing what looked like bargain prices anymore. Some buyers are dropping out of the market saying, ‘Well, it’s not a bargain.’”

While the market may be returning to regular levels, inventory remains constrained, although it is improving. In July, there were 8,122 active listings in the county, up from 5,443 a year earlier, the San Diego Association of Realtors reports. July’s supply represents a little more than two months of inventory, while Levine said economists would like to see five to six months worth of inventory.

He also noted stricter lending standards were curtailing affordability, although the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in July was 4.13 percent, down from 4.37 percent a year ago, Freddie Mac reports.

The slowdown in the housing market isn’t limited to San Diego but extends across Southern California, where sales fell to a three-year low, DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said in a statement.

“Prices came a long way in a couple of years, and now a lot of would-be buyers just can’t stretch their finances enough to buy in today’s more conservative lending environment,” he said. “The more spectacular annual price gains of a year ago — over 20 percent — seem far back in the rear-view mirror now. Looking ahead, such double-digit price jumps seem unlikely unless there’s a burst of pent-up demand, perhaps triggered by more robust income growth, a loosening of mortgage credit or a significant move in interest rates.”

Los Angeles saw its median home price increase 7.6 percent over the year to $457,500, while Orange County’s median value increased 8.4 percent annually to $585,000.

A separate report released this week by the National Association of Realtors, which measures only single-family homes, says in the second quarter San Diego County was nation’s fifth most expensive housing market behind San Jose, San Francisco, Anaheim-Santa Ana, and Honolulu.

Written by, 

Jonathan Horn

U-T San Diego

You’ve Played the Housing Market Perfectly. Don’t Blow it Now!

Many people suffered through the housing crisis. We realize that most of the heartache was the result of a housing and mortgage market gone wild. Many consumers were swept away by the waters of a frenzied real estate market that resulted in a crisis even the experts didn’t see coming. 

However, some of the suffering was caused by home buyers and home owners simply making bad decisions. NOT YOU! You didn’t buy that house that stretched your family finances past the point of sustainability. You didn’t take out a home equity loan and buy new water skis. You didn’t do a cash-out refinance for the maximum amount possible. 

Instead, you bought a home your family could enjoy – and afford! You waited for interest rates to drop to historic lows and then refinanced your mortgage; not for the sake of taking cash out but instead to lower your monthly payment. You have equity in your house and a nice, low mortgage payment. You played the housing market perfectly. 

Don’t Miss the Last Move

Yet, there is one more move many should consider. With interest rates still at historic lows, and prices projected to increase by almost 20% over the next four and a half years, this may be time to buy a new home. 

Whether, you are a growing family ready to move-up to that waterfront home you always wanted or an empty nester downsizing to a home that makes more sense, now may be the time to buy. If you have considered buying a vacation/retirement home, there may never be a better time to move forward with that plan. 

You have been fiscally astute enough to navigate the treacherous waters of a housing market that sank many a homeowner. Now, that the seas have settled, don’t think there aren’t even greater opportunities on the horizon. 

Home Prices…Where are They Headed?

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.  

The results of their latest survey

• Home values will appreciate by 4.6% in 2014.
• The cumulative appreciation will be 19.5% by 2018.
• That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.6% over the next 5 years.
• Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 11.2% by 2018.

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe the survey is a fairer depiction of future values. 

Buying a Home? You Don’t Need to Do It Alone

Last week, Discover Home Loans released an interesting survey which revealed how prepared home buyers are for the actual mortgage process. The survey reported that 94 percent of prospective buyers believe they are making a good investment decision if they buy a home. The survey also explained that 66 percent of buyers reach out to real estate agents to help determine whether buying a certain home would be a good investment. However, there is less certainty regarding the mortgage process.

Most buyers overwhelmed

The majority of potential buyers are actually overwhelmed with the plethora of information available about the home financing process.  Here are some interesting highlights from the report:

• Nearly 66% feel overwhelmed with the amount of information available
• 76% of those under the age of 30 feel overwhelmed
• 76% of first time buyers feel the same way
• 54% of those buyers who have previously owned also were overwhelmed
• 59% of buyers turn to mortgage bankers to help evaluate mortgage terms and comparing offers
• 49% of buyers turn to real estate agents to help evaluate mortgage terms and comparing offers

There is help available…use it!

Cameron Findlay, chief economist at Discover Home Loans, gives great advice:

“The industry is becoming more transparent in an effort to help homebuyers become informed about changes that may affect their process. The sheer amount of information can lead to confusion and stress. Those looking to purchase should work closely with their lender and realtor to make sure they are comfortable with mortgage terms and understand the impact a loan will have on their finances.”

Bottom Line

The purchasing of a home can put great pressure on a family. Reach out to the best mortgage and real estate professionals in your market for assistance throughout the process.

The Importance of Using an Agent When Selling Your Home

When a homeowner decides to sell their house, they obviously want the best possible price with the least amount of hassles. However, for the vast majority of sellers, the most important result is to actually get the home sold.

In order to accomplish all three goals, a seller should realize the importance of using a real estate professional. We realize that technology has changed the purchaser’s’ behavior during the home buying process. Today, 92% of all buyers use the internet in their home search according to the National Association of Realtors’ 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers.

However, the report also revealed that 96% percent of buyers that used the internet when searching for a home purchased their home through either a real estate agent/broker or from a builder or builder’s agent. Only 2% purchased their home directly from a seller whom the buyer didn’t know. Buyers search for a home online but then depend on the agent to find the actual home they will buy (52%) or to help them handle the paperwork (24%) or understand the process (24%).

It is true that the percentage of buyers that are using the internet to search for homes and information on the home buying process has increased dramatically over the last decade. But the plethora of information now available has also resulted in an increase in the percentage of buyers that reach out to real estate professionals to “connect the dots”. This is obvious as the percentage of overall buyers who used an agent to buy their home has steadily increased from 69% in 2001.

BOTTOM LINE

If you are thinking of selling your home, don’t underestimate the role a real estate professional can play in the process.