Why Did Home Sales Drop So Dramatically Last Month?

Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their latest Existing Home Sales Report which covered sales in November. The report revealed that sales:

“…fell 10.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million in November (lowest since April 2014 at 4.75 million)…”

That revelation gave birth to a series of industry articles, some of which quoted pundits questioning whether the housing market was slowing. In actuality, there is one rather simple explanation to much of the falloff in sales last month. It is likely the implementation of the “Know Before You Owe” mortgage rule, commonly known as the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) rule, which went into effect on October 3. These regulations caused house closings to be delayed by an extra three days in November as shown in the graph below.

Three days might sound like a minimal difference. However, since there are only approximately 20 days in a month that a closing would normally take place (Mondays through Fridays), losing three days constitutes well over 10% of all closings. These sales are not lost. They are just moved into the next month’s numbers. In a DS News article on the subject yesterday, Auction.com EVP Rick Sharga explained:

“The most likely cause for the weak sales numbers is a delay in processing loans due to the new TRID mortgage requirements imposed by the CFPB. This is the biggest change in mortgage document processing in many years, and there have been numerous reports within the industry of problems implementing the process and the new documentation that comes with it.”

So how is the housing market actually doing?

A better way to look at how well the housing market is doing is to look at the Foot Traffic Report from NAR which quantifies the number of prospective buyers that are actively looking for a home at the current time:

We can see immediately that demand to buy single family homes is increasing over the last few months - not decreasing.

Bottom Line

No matter what last month’s sales numbers show, the housing market is still doing well as demand remains strong.

You Will Need to Sell Your Home Twice

A recent post on “The Home Story”, a site published by Fannie Mae, explained the difference between the price a seller may get for their home and the value an appraiser might assign the property.

The Sales Price

Of course, most sellers want to maximize the value they get for the house. However, the price they set might not be reflective of the other comparable homes in the neighborhood. As the article stated:

“People tend to view their homes emotionally, and that can become quickly apparent when they decide to sell.”

That doesn’t mean that the home won’t necessarily sell for that price.

A seller can set an asking price and actually have a buyer agree to that price. However, that value may not be necessarily in agreement with what most buyers are willing to pay. For example, one person can view a property, determine it is exactly what they are looking for and well worth the asking price, whereas another person could look at the same property and feel the asking price is too high.

Steven Corbin, Director of Valuation in Fannie Mae’s CPM Real Estate division gives an example:

“Someone may have driven by the property countless times, and they really want to live in that house. So in reality they may overbid for that property. This would be a situation where the actions of a specific buyer do not represent the actions of a typical buyer.”

The Appraised Value (or Market Value)

Fannie Mae explains what they look for when appraising the house:

“When a contract is established on a property, an appraised value is determined by a professional real estate appraiser. The appraiser works on the lender’s behalf to determine that value by taking many factors into consideration, including the neighborhood, the value of properties of similar size and construction, and even such things as the type of fixtures on the premises and layout of the floor plan.”

Corbin adds:

“From a lending perspective, a bank would want to know the probable price a typical buyer would offer for the property. That’s what an appraiser would set as the market value.”

The Challenge when Sales Price and Appraisal Value are Different 

If the appraiser comes in with a value that is below the agreed upon sales price, the lending institution might not authorize the mortgage for the full amount a buyer would need to complete the transaction.

Quicken Loans actually releases a Home Price Perception Index (HPPI) that quantifies the difference between what sellers and appraisers believe regarding value. The HPPIrepresents the difference between appraisers’ and homeowners’ opinions of home values.

Currently, there is approximately a 2% difference between what homeowners believe their home to be worth and what appraisers value that same home. On a $300,000 sale that would be a $6,000 difference. That could be a challenge that might prevent the home sale proceeding to the closing table.

Quicken Loans Chief Economist Bob Walters recently commented on this issue:

“The more homeowners are in line with appraisers, the easier it will be to refinance their mortgage and easier for those looking to buy a home. If the two are aligned, it eliminates one of the top stumbling blocks in the mortgage process.”

Bottom Line

Every house on the market has to be sold twice; once to a prospective buyer and then to the bank (through the bank’s appraisal). In a housing market where supply is very low and demand is very high, home values increase rapidly. One major challenge in such a market is the bank appraisal. If prices are jumping, it is difficult for appraisers to find adequate comparable sales (similar houses in the neighborhood that closed recently) to defend the price when performing the appraisal for the bank.

With escalating prices, the second sale might be even more difficult than the first.That is why we suggest that you use an experienced real estate professional to help set your listing price.

NAR Reports Reveal Two Reasons to Sell This Winter

We all realize that the best time to sell anything is when demand is high and the supply of that item is limited. The last two major reports issued by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed information that suggests that now is a great time to sell your house.

Let’s look at the data covered by the latest Pending Home Sales Report and Existing Home Sales Report.

THE PENDING HOME SALES REPORT

The report announced that pending home sales (homes going into contract) are up 3.9% over last year, and have increased year-over-year now for 14 consecutive months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, expects demand to remain stable through the final two months of the year, and “forecasts existing-home sales to finish 2015 at a pace of 5.30 million – the highest since 2006.” 

Takeaway: Demand for housing will continue throughout the end of 2015 and into 2016. The seasonal slowdown often felt in the winter months hasn’t started and shows little signs of being near.

THE EXISTING HOME SALES REPORT

The most important data point revealed in the report was not sales but instead the inventory of homes on the market (supply). The report explained:

• Total housing inventory decreased 2.3% to 2.14 million homes available for sale
• That represents a 4.8-month supply at the current sales pace
• Unsold inventory is 4.5% lower than a year ago

There were two more interesting comments made by Yun in the report:

1. "New and existing-home supply has struggled to improve, leading to few choices for buyers and no easement of the ongoing affordability concerns still prevalent in some markets."

In real estate, there is a guideline that often applies. When there is less than 6 months inventory available, we are in a sellers’ market and we will see appreciation. Between 6-7 months is a neutral market where prices will increase at the rate of inflation. More than 7 months inventory means we are in a buyers’ market and should expect depreciation in home values. As Yun notes, we are currently in a sellers’ market (prices still increasing).

2. "Unless sizeable supply gains occur for new and existing homes, prices and rents will continue to exceed wages into next year and hamstring a large pool of potential buyers trying to buy a home.” As rents and prices increase, potential buyers will not able to save as much for a down payment and many may become priced out of the market.

Takeaway: Inventory of homes for sale is still well below the 6 months needed for a normal market. Prices will continue to rise if a ‘sizeable’ supply does not enter the market. Take advantage of the ready willing and able buyers that are still out looking for your house.

Bottom Line

If you are going to sell, now may be the time.

Existing Home Sales Up 3.9% [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some Highlights:

• The annual adjusted sales are currently at a 5.36 million pace.
• 14,684 homes sell every day in the United States.
• October marked the 44th consecutive month of price gains.

Should I Pay a Mortgage Interest Rate over 4%?

Mortgage interest rates, as reported by Freddie Mac, have increased over the last several weeks. Along with Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors are all calling for mortgage rates to continue to rise over the next four quarters.

This has caused some purchasers to lament the fact they may no longer be able to get a rate less than 4%. However, we must realize that current rates are still at historic lows.

Here is a chart showing the average mortgage interest rate over the last several decades.

Bottom Line

Though you may have missed getting the lowest mortgage rate ever offered, you can still get a better interest rate than your older brother or sister did ten years ago; a lower rate than your parents did twenty years ago and a better rate than your grandparents did forty years ago.

RAVING REVIEWS!!!

Why You Should Sell Now… Before Winter Hits

People across the country are beginning to think about what their life will look like next year. It happens every Fall. We ponder whether we should relocate to a different part of the country to find better year-round weather or perhaps move across the state for better job opportunities.

Homeowners in this situation must consider whether they should sell their house now or wait. If you are one of these potential sellers, here are five important reasons to do it now versus the dead of winter.

1. Demand is Strong

Foot traffic refers to the number of people out actually physically looking at home right now. The latest foot traffic numbers show that buyers are still out in force looking for their dream home. These buyers are ready, willing and able to buy…and are in the market right now!

As we get later into the year, many people have other things (weather, holidays, etc.) that distract them from searching for a home. Take advantage of the buyer activity currently in the market.

2. There Is Less Competition Now

Housing supply is still well under the 6 months’ supply necessary for a normal market. This means that, in many markets, there are not enough homes for sale to satisfy the number of buyers in that market. This is good news for home prices. However, additional inventory is about to come to market.

There is a pent-up desire for many homeowners to move as they were unable to sell over the last few years because of a negative equity situation. Homeowners are now seeing a return to positive equity as real estate values have increased over the last two years. Many of these homes will be coming to the market in the near future.

Also, new construction of single-family homes is again beginning to increase. A study by Harris Poll revealed that 41% of buyers would prefer to buy a new home while only 21% prefer an existing home (38% had no preference).

The choices buyers have will continue to increase over the next few months. Don’t wait until all this other inventory of homes comes to market before you sell.

3. The Process Will Be Quicker

One of the biggest challenges of the housing market in recent times has been the length of time it takes from contract to closing. Banks are requiring more and more paperwork before approving a mortgage. Any delay in the process is always prolonged during the winter holiday season. Getting your house sold and closed before those delays begin will lend itself to a smoother transaction.

4. There Will Never Be a Better Time to Move-Up

If you are moving up to a larger, more expensive home, consider doing it now. Prices are projected to appreciate by over 18.1% from now to 2019. If you are moving to a higher priced home, it will wind-up costing you more in raw dollars (both in down payment and mortgage payment) if you wait. You can also lock-in your 30-year housing expense with an interest rate below 4% right now. Rates are projected to rise by this time next year.

5. It’s Time to Move On with Your Life

Look at the reason you decided to sell in the first place and determine whether it is worth waiting. Is money more important than being with family? Is money more important than your health? Is money more important than having the freedom to go on with your life the way you think you should?

Only you know the answers to the questions above. You have the power to take back control of the situation by putting your home on the market. Perhaps, the time has come for you and your family to move on and start living the life you desire.

That is what is truly important.

Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed? This Winter? Next Year?

The interest rate you pay on your home mortgage has a direct impact on your monthly payment. The higher the rate the greater the payment will be. That is why it is important to look at where rates are headed when deciding to buy now or wait until next year.

Below is a chart created using Freddie Mac’s October 2015 U.S. Economic & Housing Marketing Outlook. As you can see interest rates are projected to increase steadily over the course of the next 12 months.

How Will This Impact Your Mortgage Payment?

Depending on the amount of the loan that you secure, a half of a percent (.5%) increase in interest rate can increase your monthly mortgage payment significantly.

According to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index, national home prices have appreciated 6.4% from this time last year and are predicted to be 4.7% higher next year.

If both the predictions of home price and interest rate increases become reality, families would wind up paying considerably more for their next home.

Bottom Line

Even a small increase in interest rate can impact your family’s wealth. Meet with a local real estate professional to evaluate your ability to purchase your dream home.

The Difference An Hour Can Make [INFOGRAPHIC]

Every Hour in the US Housing Market: 

• 634 Homes Sell
• 347 Homes Regain Positive Equity
• Median Home Values Go Up $1.46

Buying A Home Can Be SCARY… Until You Know The FACTS! [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some Highlights:

• 36% of Americans think they need a 20% down payment to buy a home. 44% of Millennials who purchased a home this year have put down less than 10%.
• 71% of loan applications were approved last month
• The average credit score of approved loans was 723 in September (the lowest recorded score since Ellie Mae began tracking in August 2011).

Buying a Home Remains 35% Less Expensive than Renting!

In the latest Rent vs. Buy Report from Trulia, they explained that homeownership remains cheaper than renting with a traditional 30-year fixed rate mortgage throughout the 100 largest metro areas in the United States.

The updated numbers actually show that the range is from an average of 16% in Honolulu (HI), all the way to 55% in Sarasota (FL), and 35% Nationwide!

The other interesting findings in the report include:

• Interest rates have remained low and even though home prices have appreciated around the country, they haven’t greatly outpaced rental appreciation. “In the past year, these two trends have made homeownership even more affordable compared with renting.”
• Some markets might tip in favor of renting if home prices increase at a greater rate than rents and if – as most economists expect – mortgage rates rise, due to the strengthening economy.
• Nationally, rates would have to rise to 10.6% for renting to be cheaper than buying – and rates haven’t been that high since 1989.  

Bottom Line

Buying a home makes sense socially and financially. Rents are predicted to increase substantially in the next year, lock in your housing cost with a mortgage payment now.

4 Reasons to Buy BEFORE Winter Hits

It's that time of year; the seasons are changing and with them bring thoughts of the upcoming holidays, family get-togethers, and planning for a new year. Those who are on the fence about whether now is the right time to buy don't have to look much farther to find four great reasons to consider buying a home now, instead of waiting.

1. Prices Will Continue to Rise

The Home Price Expectation Survey polls a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. Their most recent report released recently projects appreciation in home values over the next five years to be between 10.5% (most pessimistic) and 25.5% (most optimistic).

The bottom in home prices has come and gone. Home values will continue to appreciate for years. Waiting no longer makes sense.

2. Mortgage Interest Rates Are Projected to Increase

Although Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows that interest rates for a 30-year mortgage have softened recently, most experts predict that they will begin to rise later this year. The Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors are in unison projecting that rates will be up almost a full percentage point by the end of next year.

An increase in rates will impact YOUR monthly mortgage payment. Your housing expense will be more a year from now if a mortgage is necessary to purchase your next home.

3. Either Way You are Paying a Mortgage

As a recent paper from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University explains:

“Households must consume housing whether they own or rent. Not even accounting for more favorable tax treatment of owning, homeowners pay debt service to pay down their own principal while households that rent pay down the principal of a landlord plus a rate of return. That’s yet another reason owning often does—as Americans intuit—end up making more financial sense than renting.”

4. It’s Time to Move On with Your Life

The ‘cost’ of a home is determined by two major components: the price of the home and the current mortgage rate. It appears that both are on the rise.

But, what if they weren’t? Would you wait?

Look at the actual reason you are buying and decide whether it is worth waiting. Whether you want to have a great place for your children to grow up, you want your family to be safer or you just want to have control over renovations, maybe it is time to buy.

Bottom Line

If the right thing for you and your family is to purchase a home this year, buying sooner rather than later could lead to substantial savings.

New Home Sales Surge By 5.7%! [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some Highlights:

• The median price of a newly constructed home is currently $292,700.
• Sales are up 5.7% month-over-month and 21.6% year-over-year.
• Many buyers are looking to new homes as an option due to the lack of inventory of existing homes for sale.

#1 Reason to List Your House Today

If you are debating listing your house for sale this year or even early next year, here is the #1 reason not to wait!

Buyer Demand Continues to Outpace the Supply of Homes For Sale

According to the National Association of REALTORS’ (NAR) Foot Traffic report, there are more buyers out in the market right now than at any other time in the past three years.

The graph below shows the significant increase in foot traffic experienced this year compared to 2014.

The latest Existing Home Sales report shows that there is currently a 5.2-month supply of homes for sale. This remains lower than the 6-month supply necessary for a normal market and well below August 2014 numbers.

The chart below details the year-over-year inventory shortages experienced so far in 2015:

Bottom Line

Meet with a local real estate professional who can show you the supply conditions in your neighborhood and assist you in gaining access to the buyers who are ready, willing and able to buy today!

Thinking of Selling? 5 Reasons You Shouldn’t For Sale By Owner

In today's market, with homes selling quickly and prices rising some homeowners might consider trying to sell their home on their own, known in the industry as a For Sale by Owner (FSBO). There are several reasons this might not be a good idea for the vast majority of sellers.

Here are five reasons:

1. There Are Too Many People to Negotiate With

Here is a list of some of the people with whom you must be prepared to negotiate if you decide to For Sale By Owner:

• The buyer who wants the best deal possible
• The buyer’s agent who solely represents the best interest of the buyer
• The buyer’s attorney (in some parts of the country)
• The home inspection companies, which work for the buyer and will almost always find some problems with the house.
• The appraiser if there is a question of value

 2. Exposure to Prospective Purchasers

Recent studies have shown that 88% of buyers search online for a home. That is in comparison to only 21% looking at print newspaper ads. Most real estate agents have an internet strategy to promote the sale of your home. Do you?

3. Results Come from the Internet

Where do buyers find the home they actually purchased?

• 43% on the internet
• 9% from a yard sign
• 1% from newspaper

The days of selling your house by just putting up a sign and putting it in the paper are long gone. Having a strong internet strategy is crucial.

4. FSBOing has Become More and More Difficult

The paperwork involved in selling and buying a home has increased dramatically as industry disclosures and regulations have become mandatory. This is one of the reasons that the percentage of people FSBOing has dropped from 19% to 9% over the last 20+ years.

5. You Net More Money when Using an Agent

Many homeowners believe that they will save the real estate commission by selling on their own. Realize that the main reason buyers look at FSBOs is because they also believe they can save the real estate agent’s commission. The seller and buyer can’t both save the commission.

Studies have shown that the typical house sold by the homeowner sells for $208,000 while the typical house sold by an agent sells for $235,000. This doesn’t mean that an agent can get $27,000 more for your home as studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points. However, it does show that selling on your own might not make sense.

Bottom Line

Before you decide to take on the challenges of selling your house on your own, sit with a real estate professional in your marketplace and see what they have to offer.

2015: A Big Year for Buyers

For a host of reasons, 2015 is shaping up to be a good year for homebuyers—particularly younger and first-time buyers.

More inventory, rising rents and changing demographics will all contribute to more balance in the market between buyers and sellers next year, after years in which sellers were largely in the driver’s seat. Below are Zillow’s official predictions for real estate in 2015:
Growth in U.S. rents will outpace growth in home values by the end of the year.
Millennials will overtake Generation X as the largest group of homebuyers.
Builders will begin constructing more, less expensive homes.
Homebuyers will have more negotiating power in 2015.

How will all of this play out? Each prediction ties into the next. Read on for more.


Growth in Rents Will Outpace Home Values

After peaking at an annual pace of 8.3 percent in April, home value growth has slowed in every month since, falling to 6.4 percent by October. This pace is expected to continue to fall, to about 2.5 percent by the end of 2015, much more in line with historical growth rates in home values and a sign the for-sale market is continuing its march back to normal.

But at the same time growth in home values has been slowing, growth in rents has been accelerating. After dipping to a 2014-low of 2.3 percent annual growth in May, the pace of annual rental growth has risen or stayed flat in every month since, up to 3.5 percent in October. We expect rents to continue growing at that pace through 2015.

Rental demand is skyrocketing, thanks to a combination of younger workers staying in rental housing longer and families turning to the rental market after losing their homes to foreclosure during the recession. Builders are doing what they can to keep up, but it can take a while to get large multi-family projects off the ground, and demand is very hot right now.

So what does this mean for buyers? In a word, affordability. In the second-quarter, for-sale homes in the United States were roughly 30 percent less expensive (in terms of the share of income needed to afford the mortgage on a typical home) than they were in the pre-bubble years between 1985 and 2000. But rental homes were almost 20 percent more expensive. Continued growth in rents, combined with a slowdown in home value appreciation, will mean this trend will only continue into 2015.

For current renters that can afford a down payment and can find a home they can afford, buying will look increasingly attractive next year.


Millennials Will Overtake Gen X as the Largest Homebuying Age Group

Contrary to popular opinion, millennials (buyers aged 23 to 34) actually do want to buy homes. And current millennial renters are more optimistic than other generations that they will eventually be able to afford a home. So a lack of desire or confidence is not why these younger potential buyers have not been buying homes. Instead, the answer has much more to do with demographics: Millennials have been delaying getting married and having children, the two main drivers for first-time home purchases.

But life catches up to everyone, and as this group ages, they will begin to settle down and start buying homes en masse. Being the largest generation in the country, millennials also have numbers on their side.

Finally, the rising rents mentioned above will force current young renters—no matter how content they are renting—to consider buying a home, if only to keep their monthly payments fixed. Given lifestyle preferences, it’s possible and maybe even likely that these home purchases could lean more toward condos or townhomes located closer to city centers, and away from suburban subdivisions and single-family cul-de-sac communities.

Whatever the type of home purchased, there will be a shift among this group toward homeownership, and away from renting. In many areas, the gap between the homeownership rate of millennials and older Baby Boomers is already quite narrow relative to other places, including large markets like Las Vegas and Fresno, California.


Builders Will Build More, Less Expensive Homes

In general, home builders appear to have made a tradeoff in recent years: To sell fewer, more expensive homes instead of selling more, less expensive homes.

Currently, newly constructed homes command a roughly $75,000 premium over existing homes, putting a new home out of reach for many would-be first-time buyers. Additionally, even though inventory of for-sale homes is up overall, in many markets inventory at the lower end of the market is far more constrained than at the higher end.

Take Denver, for example. In October, there were almost four times as many homes available for sale in the Denver metro in the upper price tier (priced at $357,900 or more) than there were homes priced in the lowest price tier (less than $219,000). The same pattern held true in many other markets, as well. Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix and Nashville all had at least two times more homes for sale in the top tier than the bottom tier in October.

But we expect more bottom-tier inventory to come on line over the next year, and a lot of that will come from builders turning their attention away from the upper part of the market and toward the lower end, particularly as more millennials enter the market, as noted above. New home sales volume has been stuck around the 450,000 per year mark. In order to break out and get that number above 500,000, builders are going to have to start to build cheaper homes, which will help to narrow the price gap between new and existing homes and contribute to more rapid inventory gains both overall and at the lower end of the market.


And as a Result, Homebuyers Will Have More Leverage Overall in the Market

For all of the reasons outlined above, buyers in general will have more negotiating power in the market.

In many ways, conditions have been ripe for buyers for several years: Home affordability is very high, thanks to home values that remain almost 10 percent off their pre-recession peaks and mortgage interest rates that remain near all-time lows. What’s been missing has been inventory of for-sale homes, both from a lack of sellers and because investors and all-cash buyers scooped up thousands of properties in the wake of the foreclosure crisis, and have not begun selling them off yet at a sufficient pace to keep up with demand.

But inventory is coming back, and will gather even more momentum as builders ramp back up. As a result, instead of buyers feeling the competitive heat and engaging in bidding wars to the benefit of sellers, that pressure will instead shift to sellers competing with the home down the block for offers and attention. This will lead to price cuts, which will help keep homes affordable for more buyers.

We’re already seeing this occur. Roughly 37.4 percent of all U.S. listings on Zillow had at least one price cut in October, up from 34 percent at the same time last year. The median price cut nationwide was about 5.4 percent in October, or more than $9,500 based on the October median home value of $177,500.

More selection, better deals and continued low mortgage rates, coupled with an increasingly difficult rental environment, will help bring balance to 2015 and result in smoother sailing for everyone as they enter the housing market.

Stan Humphries
Stan is Zillow's Chief Economist.