Housing market poised for steady gains

San Diego County’s housing market should see stable price gains and increased demand as the economy continues to grow in 2015, according to a pair of real-estate forecasts released this week. 

The forecasts, by Realtor.com and Trulia, indicate the days of investor-led fixing and flipping that led to double digit annual price gains during the recovery from the Great Recession are over and won’t return. Instead, wage growth, employment, supply and demand will continue to push the market forward, with annual gains in prices at about 4 percent, about double inflation, said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Realtor.com. A lack of affordability will remain an issue despite some wage increases, Smoke said, in part because he expects interest rates to rise about 0.5 percent. 

“San Diego falls into a short list of markets where I would say demonstrably already that demand outpaces supply,” Smoke said. “That very tight supply condition puts it in a market that has next to zero chance of seeing prices decline.”

Jed Kolko, the chief economist for Trulia, noted that people expected interest rates to rise last year, and that never happened. He listed San Diego as one of the nation’s 10 markets to watch next year, with Fresno the only other California metropolitan area to make the list. Others making the positive list are Boston, Dallas, Nashville and New York.

“They have strong fundamentals for the housing market without the risk that prices look overvalued,” Kolko said. “These are the markets who are in that sweet spot where the conditions are ripe for a strong year, without much downside risk.”

Smoke said demand will increase as the millennial generation, of 19-to-35 year olds, continues to get older and moved toward starting a family. He said San Diego should see 5 percent household formation growth over the next five years, with construction activity increasing to help with some supply. Kolko said he also sees millennials moving out of their parents’ homes for the first time, but most are going to rent. Still, there’s not enough housing supply to match demand, with inventory in San Diego running a little more than two months, about half of what economists would like to see. 

Smoke and Kolko said higher lending standards and saving for a 20 percent downpayment are challenges facing millennials who want to buy. 

In October, the median price for a home sold in the county was $440,000, up 6.6 percent from a year earlier, CoreLogic DataQuick reports. The annual rate of appreciation on homes in the county has declined since peaking at 24.1 percent in June 2013, when foreclosure resales and fix-and-flip activity paced the market.

The Real Estate Market Has Turned The Corner

As we finish 2014, it appears the real estate market is once again on solid footing and ready to advance forward over the next few years. The strength of the market can be viewed using two metrics: projected home values and projected house sales.

We recently reported that the Home Price Expectation Survey revealed future home values will continue to appreciate nicely. Today we want to look at projections on the number of home sales (existing and new construction) we will see over the next two years. We researched what the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) are projecting for the housing industry going forward.

Here is what we found:

All three entities see the number of home sales increasing in both 2015 and 2016. This is further proof the housing market is back.

Will an Increase in Interest Rates Crush Home Prices?

There are some who are calling for a substantial drop in home prices should mortgage interest rates begin to rise rapidly. Intuitively that makes sense. The cost of a home is determined by the price of the home and the price of financing that home. If mortgage interest rates increase, less people will be able to buy. The logic says prices will fall if demand decreases.

However, history shows us that this has not been the case the last four times mortgage interest rates dramatically increased.

Here is a graph showing what actually did happen:

We will have to wait and see what happens as we move forward. But, a fall in prices should rates go up is not guaranteed.

Freddie Mac: Buy Sooner Rather than Later

In a recent video update on the housing market, Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, stated that with both mortgage interest rates and home prices projected to increase in 2015 buying now makes sense.

“If you are planning to buy a home in the next year, it’s better to do it sooner rather than later.”

Here are the latest mortgage interest rate projections from four major housing entities: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

Thinking of Selling & Moving Up?

This advice isn’t limited to just the first-time buyer. If you are considering moving up to the home your family has always wanted, waiting also makes no sense.

Home Prices Continue to Rise

“Broad-based Slowdown for Home Prices”

That is a headline you might have seen over the past weekend. And though it is true, we must understand the story behind the headline. Case Shiller reports on the year-over-year difference in home values. Their latest report revealed that the rate of appreciation has slowed – not that prices are falling!! Here is exactly what they said:

“The 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year, compared to 5.6% in August.”

Prices are still up this month over last year’s values (4.9%) just not as much as they were last month (5.6%).

Home Prices are NOT Falling. 

As a matter of fact, the latest Home Price Expectation Survey by Pulsenomics (a survey of a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists) showed that home prices will continue to appreciate for the next several years.

Bottom Line

Both first time buyers and families thinking of moving-up to their dream home can be assured that their investment in their new home makes sense.

Proof that NOW is a Good Time to Sell

Most homeowners believe that the winter is not a good time to sell. This belief is based on the fact that historically the number of buyers decreases in the winter and then increases dramatically during the spring buying market. Though this is still true, there is an interesting pattern developing over the last few months.

The number of prospective purchasers actively looking at a home (foot traffic) has remained strong going into the fall. As a matter of fact, the foot traffic far exceeds the numbers reported for the same months last year (see chart):

At the same time, the National Association of Realtors revealed that the months’ supply of housing inventory has decreased from 5.5 months to 5.3. That equates to less competition for homeowners selling today as compared to next spring when many homeowners will decide to put their home on the market.

Bottom Line

Since buying activity is still strong, this might be a great time to put your house on the market.

4 More Reasons to Sell Now

As we discussed last week one reason to sell now is demand is still strong. With inventory levels also still below historic numbers, you could be missing out on a great opportunity for your family.

1. There Is Less Competition Now

Housing supply just dropped to 5.1 months, which is under the 6 months’ supply that is needed for a normal housing market. This means that, in many areas, there are not enough homes for sale to satisfy the number of buyers in that market. This is good news for home prices. However, additional inventory is about to come to market.

There is a pent-up desire for many homeowners to move, as they were unable to sell over the last few years because of a negative equity situation. Homeowners are now seeing a return to positive equity as real estate values have increased over the last two years. Many of these homes will be coming to the market in the near future.

Also, new construction of single-family homes is again beginning to increase. A study by Harris Poll revealed that 41% of buyers would prefer to buy a new home while only 21% prefer an existing home (38% had no preference).

The choices buyers have will continue to increase over the next few months. Don’t wait until all this other inventory of homes comes to market before you sell.

2. The Process Will Be Quicker

One of the biggest challenges of the 2014 housing market has been the length of time it takes from contract to closing. Banks are requiring more and more paperwork before approving a mortgage. Any delay in the process is always prolonged during the winter holiday season. Getting your house sold and closed before those delays begin will lend itself to a smoother transaction.

3. There Will Never Be a Better Time to Move-Up

If you are moving up to a larger, more expensive home, consider doing it now. Prices are projected to appreciate by over 23.5% from now to 2019. If you are moving to a higher priced home, it will wind-up costing you more in raw dollars (both in down payment and mortgage payment) if you wait. You can also lock-in your 30 year housing expense with an interest rate in the low 4’s right now. Rates are projected to be over 5% by this time next year.

4. It’s Time to Move On with Your Life

Look at the reason you decided to sell in the first place and determine whether it is worth waiting. Is money more important than being with family? Is money more important than your health? Is money more important than having the freedom to go on with your life the way you think you should?

Only you know the answers to the questions above. You have the power to take back control of the situation by putting your home on the market. Perhaps, the time has come for you and your family to move on and start living the life you desire.

That is what is truly important.